By Michele Wucker
A "gray rhino" is a hugely possible, excessive impression but missed chance: family to either the elephant within the room and the inconceivable and unforeseeable black swan. grey rhinos usually are not random surprises, yet happen after a chain of warnings and visual proof. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of storm Katrina and different traditional mess ups, the recent electronic applied sciences that upended the media global, the autumn of the Soviet Union...all have been glaring good in advance.
Why do leaders and selection makers maintain failing to deal with visible hazards prior to they spiral uncontrolled? Drawing on her broad history in coverage formation and challenge administration, in addition to in-depth interviews with leaders from around the globe, Michele Wucker exhibits in The grey Rhino easy methods to realize and strategically counter looming excessive effect threats. full of persuasive tales, real-world examples, and sensible recommendation, The grey Rhino is key examining for managers, traders, planners, coverage makers, and an individual who desires to know how to learn by means of keeping off getting trampled.
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Additional info for The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore
This is the central paradox of Gray Rhino threats: rise to the threat too soon, while the threat is on the horizon, and your hands are tied; rise to the threat when you can access the resources you need, and the cost is astronomical, whether it’s a matter of softening the blow or picking up the pieces. Not If but When In The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes about catastrophes with outsized consequences that are so rare and unthinkable that people weren’t prepared to face them because they couldn’t even conceive of their existence.
Their success is a combination of leadership and character, awareness of the ways in which we humans trip ourselves up and how we can avoid those mistakes, and sometimes sheer luck in having the right set of circumstances—for example, sufficient resources and a critical mass of others who recognize a challenge and are motivated to respond. Breaking the Rules Imagine that you’re on safari in Africa, where you’ve traveled far for a chance to see a rhinoceros alive before it’s too late. The Western black rhino was declared extinct in 2011, after five years without a sighting, and the number of all remaining black rhinos is in the low thousands.
The disaster hit the whole country hard, but for the Rice community it was personal. Many years later, I studied the Challenger case, handily disguised in the cloak of an entirely different set of circumstances, in an exercise at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government with Professor Bazerman. Our group struggled with the conflicting emotions of a team wanting to win a contest in which the stakes were high, though hardly as high as the lives that were lost in the Challenger explosion. We focused too much on the chance that nothing would go wrong; on all the reasons that the low temperature outdoors was not the reason the equipment had failed in the past.
The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore by Michele Wucker